This post presents a new method for estimating the number of Russian fatalities based on budget spending in certain Russian regions. The results appear to match the data of other OSINT projects.
Russians mobilized have no right to demobilization, or even to life
The New York Times published a report based on a leaked database of complaints to the Russian ombudsman.
The leak became known on December 23, when Ekho Moskvy published its analysis of the obtained data. Ekho Moskvy and NYT's reports were prepared in parallel; we shared the investigative materials with our colleagues in advance.
The publication showed that violence has become the primary method of replenishing the Russian army.
"The complaints show that coercion remains an integral part of replenishing Russia's ranks. They reveal the pressure conscripts and conscripts are under to renew their contracts," the report stated.
Around 1-2 million Russians die each year (from natural causes), probably 50-100k die in the war per year. Counting graves will show only small relative changes and would have to be very precise.
Check out a recent essay on my Substack "Russia's War of Self-Destruction II. Russia's 'Meatgrinder.' In that, I make use of a recent report by Institute for the Study of War from 7 October 2025, a Russian MoD leak published by Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project. I go into a full breakdown on the proportions that leak suggests (daily casualty rates, WIA, KIA, MIA, irrecoverable losses, etc.). Not "The Rosetta Stone" of Russian casualties but a valuable additional reference point.
It sounds like you and I share an interest in empirically grounded inquiry!
And also, I think the numbers should exclude all foreign mercenaries — including those from Cuba, North Korea, and others — as well as recruits from the occupied territories. Some estimates suggest that just from Donbas alone, between 50,000 and 100,000 people conscripted by Russia have been killed.
It’s based on obituaries. BBC Russian works with Mediazona and has a breakdown by region. There’s 585 people whose region is unknown, plus another 1006 foreign fighters. Their count for Bashkortostan is 6707, for example.
Russians mobilized have no right to demobilization, or even to life
The New York Times published a report based on a leaked database of complaints to the Russian ombudsman.
The leak became known on December 23, when Ekho Moskvy published its analysis of the obtained data. Ekho Moskvy and NYT's reports were prepared in parallel; we shared the investigative materials with our colleagues in advance.
The publication showed that violence has become the primary method of replenishing the Russian army.
"The complaints show that coercion remains an integral part of replenishing Russia's ranks. They reveal the pressure conscripts and conscripts are under to renew their contracts," the report stated.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/31/world/europe/russia-military-abuse-soldiers.html
Did anyone ever try to count space and graves on graveyards?
There were all the OSINT people counting Tanks. Wonder if such an approach could also be used…
Around 1-2 million Russians die each year (from natural causes), probably 50-100k die in the war per year. Counting graves will show only small relative changes and would have to be very precise.
Yes, but it seems like military victims got larger decorated graves, obviously not easy,
https://nationalsecuritynews.com/2024/03/exclusive-satellite-images-reveal-the-expansion-of-russian-war-cemeteries-following-huge-troops-losses-in-ukraine/
Check out a recent essay on my Substack "Russia's War of Self-Destruction II. Russia's 'Meatgrinder.' In that, I make use of a recent report by Institute for the Study of War from 7 October 2025, a Russian MoD leak published by Ukraine's "I Want to Live" project. I go into a full breakdown on the proportions that leak suggests (daily casualty rates, WIA, KIA, MIA, irrecoverable losses, etc.). Not "The Rosetta Stone" of Russian casualties but a valuable additional reference point.
It sounds like you and I share an interest in empirically grounded inquiry!
Interesting approach. If I get it right, the whole number is around 130k according to this method?
Around that, but excluding PMC and prisoners.
And also, I think the numbers should exclude all foreign mercenaries — including those from Cuba, North Korea, and others — as well as recruits from the occupied territories. Some estimates suggest that just from Donbas alone, between 50,000 and 100,000 people conscripted by Russia have been killed.
Are the mediazona 200 numbers in the bar chart based on obituaries (~135k nationwide) or the probate count (~219k nationwide)?
It’s based on obituaries. BBC Russian works with Mediazona and has a breakdown by region. There’s 585 people whose region is unknown, plus another 1006 foreign fighters. Their count for Bashkortostan is 6707, for example.
Oh man, that means the death payout data are consistent with the much lower obituary count, rather than the higher probate court estimate?
I find that surprising.
Not everyone gets a payout, so I would say it's as incomplete as Mediazona, but in a different way (more regulars, but no PMC)