Why Putin Will Not Settle

By attacking but not destroying Ukrainian sovereignty, Putin has brought his own nightmare to life. He cannot end it unless he controls Kyiv.

The idea that negotiations could soon end the war in Ukraine is a recurring theme in Western discourse. The latest round of discussions was sparked by Ukrainian FM Kuleba, who told Chinese interlocutors that Ukraine was ready to talk if Moscow acted in good faith.

Both Russian and Ukrainian officials regularly declare their willingness to negotiate. And they are regularly misunderstood: Demonstrating the willingness to talk is a vital part of Kyiv and Moscow's global outreach campaigns. But it does not mean that either side actually believes that direct negotiations would lead anywhere at this point, and it does not indicate a willingness to compromise.

The fundamental reason why a compromise is currently impossible is that Russia still wants to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty. The Kremlin has never changed the main goals of the war: It is still "denazification" and "demilitarization," which means regime change and an end to Ukrainian sovereignty. As long as this is the case, no one needs to waste time thinking about compromises on new borders, alliances, reparations, etc., because these things only matter in a world in which Putin has given up on "denazification" and "demilitarization", or in which Russia has a new president.

Some observers may believe that Putin has secretly dropped his original goals of regime change in Kyiv because he miscalculated so badly: The war proved far more costly and difficult than anticipated. But that would be ignoring how much the world changed when Putin's army failed to take Kyiv in 2022. In those days, Putin's intentions became clear to everyone - and he was humiliated at the same time. At that moment, it became vital for him to finish the job. This article will try to explain why:

If Ukraine remains independent, it will arm itself to the teeth. This is not only reasonable and legitimate, it is inevitable. It is what any country in Ukraine's position would do. There is no question that Russia's ongoing invasion is traumatic for millions of Ukrainians. The brutality and destruction of Russia's attack will remain part of the collective memory for generations. Protecting Ukrainians from Russia will be the number 1, 2, and 3 priority of any future Ukrainian government. It is now inscribed in the DNA of the Ukrainian state.

It does not matter what the conditions of a hypothetical ceasefire would be - as long as Ukraine's sovereignty remains intact, Kyiv would immediately prepare for Russia's next invasion. Most likely, the West would help with a lot of money and weapons. But even if the West were to betray Ukraine, and there were to be no more financial support and no more Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, this would not stop Ukrainians from arming themselves. They would look around the world for affordable weapons to buy, upgrade their own defense industries, and continue to innovate, train, and prepare.

Even if Ukraine were to become a member of NATO - which is unlikely in the next few years - it won't stop the country from arming itself: Ukrainians (as well as the Kremlin) have taken note of the West's unwillingness to fight for Ukraine in 2022. There will always be doubts that things will be different in the future. Even if the West were to deploy its own military in Ukraine to deter a future Russian attack, there is a risk that it could withdraw those units at the last minute as the Russian military approaches and Putin threatens nuclear war. Ukrainians understand that in the end they can only rely on themselves. So they will arm themselves no matter what. And the Kremlin understands that.

Putin will never accept a sovereign, well-armed and defiant Ukraine. Despite all its propaganda, the Kremlin has some sense of what it has done over the past two and a half years. Moscow knows that it has committed heinous crimes, it knows that its attempts to annex large swaths of Ukrainian territory will always be seen as illegitimate and indefensible.

The Kremlin understands, at least partially, the spirits that its invasion has summoned in Ukraine and the West. By invading Ukraine, Putin has made many new sworn enemies. He has brought his own nightmare to life: In his eyes, an independent Ukraine is now the “anti-Russia at Russia’s border” - a loud and proud monument to Putin’s crimes and - even worse for him - his weakness.

We tend to forget how thoroughly the Ukrainian army humiliated Putin in 2022. For the Kremlin, 2022 was its "Sputnik moment" - a shocking realization of the true state of its own forces. We tend to forget that only three years ago, before Russia's march on Kyiv was repelled, most of Europe was afraid of Russia's conventional military. That fear is gone. Today, Putin can only threaten us with nuclear war - a threat that is sometimes effective, but also isolates Putin because his supporters in China or the “Global South” find it frightening, too.

The only way for Putin to quell the spirits he has summoned, push over the monument to his own weakness, and instill new fear in Europeans is by defeating Ukraine and gaining some kind of control over Kyiv.

In Putin's dreams, he manages to install a Russia-friendly puppet regime in Kyiv that officially accepts the "new borders" with Russia, destroys all evidence of war crimes, rewrites all Ukrainian history books, and drops all claims for reparations. In doing so, Putin would permanently silence the chief witness and accuser of his crimes. In the process, Putin could destroy Ukrainian civil society and create the same moral apathy and atomization, the same pathological society, that he has created in Russia. As a welcome side effect, he would hand the U.S. a resounding strategic defeat.

All of the above makes it clear that - whatever reasons Putin may have had to attempt regime change in Ukraine in February 2022 - his motives for ending Ukrainian sovereignty are much, much stronger today. It has become a vital issue.

What are the options?

A cynical observer in the West might say: Well, then we must let Putin defeat Ukraine to have stability in the region and stop the war. Putin apparently believes that he could achieve control over the Ukrainians, make his dream come true by installing a dictator in Kyiv and stationing the Russian military in the country, killing or incarcerating anyone who won't bow to the regime.

Even if you ignore the terrible consequences this would have for the West: Putin is probably wrong. He failed to keep Kyiv under control in 2013/2014, when his man Yanukovych was still in power, and he is much less likely to succeed now, after the transformation that Ukraine has undergone in the past few years. There would always be resistance, partisan warfare, and attacks on Russian troops and officials. If Putin got a shot at controlling Kyiv, the result would probably be chaos and enormous bloodshed, leading to millions of refugees and lots of instability in the region. So even a cynical (but intellectually honest) observer would have to conclude that this scenario cannot be considered.

But in the face of all this, how can peace be restored? The logical answer is simple, but many will find it hard to accept: For the Kremlin to agree to Ukrainian independence, Russia would need a lot of change - and a new president. This is a frightening conclusion, because the Russian regime is - as of today - stable, rich, and armed with nuclear weapons. Economically, it has several more years of war in it.

It is important for Western politicians to accept the grim reality described above, because it will continue to dramatically change the security situation in Europe in the coming years.

It is also important to remember how important - and how effective - it is to support Ukraine, even though there is little hope that the war will end soon. Every day that Ukraine is able to hold the front line, every Russian missile shot down is a victory, despite the enormous suffering the war brings. Thanks to the strength of the Ukrainian military and Western support, millions of Ukrainians have lived in freedom and relative peace for the past 2.5 years. The West can ensure that they continue to live in freedom and relative peace for years to come, even though there is no end in sight to Russian aggression.

Picture: Wikimedia Commons