Russian recruitment has slowed down this year, but there are no signs of a collapse yet. Meanwhile, recruitment costs are at an all-time high, and payments to intermediaries are increasing.
Russia's 'strain' on recruitment is that it's paying sign up bonuses of £16,000 ? (1.8 million roubles).
Given a lot of the state budget comes from sales of internationally priced commodities, 25% of the Russian federal budget is from hydrocarbons for example -- this strain doesn't seem to be particularly acute for Russia?
To be fair Janis, I checked the Ukrainian one and it's $4,800 for youth who register. Which given the desperation in Ukrainian recruitment is indictive that we can't read much into the bonus figures other than the degree to which they're the chosen incentive for recruitment. One area that'd be interesting is if the graph on sign up bonus vs time had a hockey-stick shape to it, but that's not where Russia is at the moment.
The strain is not the payment per se (although for some regions it's a problem), but rather the signs of stress in some regions. There is no forced mobilization at the moment, but the model is gradually shifting towards it. If companies are forced to name men who will sign up (or the business will get into trouble with officials), or the police pressures people to sign up to get a certain bonus, or recruiters are tricking men into signing up... There are also credible reports from problems in the regions to fulfil the quota and men signing up who are not fit for service etc. I agree that the financial aspect is not the biggest issue, although the personnel cost of the war is staggering (compensation for KIA and injuries are probably more than recruitment costs).
The 160,000 spring draft is papering over something. CSIS noted they're moving toward year-round conscription, which tells you the volunteer pipeline is thinning faster than the headlines suggest.
I worry about the attrition mathematics here. Russia can probably keep this up for a long time but how long until Ukraine (with pressing man power issues) bucks under the weight of the endless bodies Russia throws at it?
Although with recruitment costs and overall expenditure spiralling out of control, it's practically a guarantee that this war won't expand into the rest of Eastern Eur/Baltics over time.
As always, more great research by Janis.
Hi Janis,
I had a look at the rouble/gbp conversion rate.
Russia's 'strain' on recruitment is that it's paying sign up bonuses of £16,000 ? (1.8 million roubles).
Given a lot of the state budget comes from sales of internationally priced commodities, 25% of the Russian federal budget is from hydrocarbons for example -- this strain doesn't seem to be particularly acute for Russia?
To be fair Janis, I checked the Ukrainian one and it's $4,800 for youth who register. Which given the desperation in Ukrainian recruitment is indictive that we can't read much into the bonus figures other than the degree to which they're the chosen incentive for recruitment. One area that'd be interesting is if the graph on sign up bonus vs time had a hockey-stick shape to it, but that's not where Russia is at the moment.
The strain is not the payment per se (although for some regions it's a problem), but rather the signs of stress in some regions. There is no forced mobilization at the moment, but the model is gradually shifting towards it. If companies are forced to name men who will sign up (or the business will get into trouble with officials), or the police pressures people to sign up to get a certain bonus, or recruiters are tricking men into signing up... There are also credible reports from problems in the regions to fulfil the quota and men signing up who are not fit for service etc. I agree that the financial aspect is not the biggest issue, although the personnel cost of the war is staggering (compensation for KIA and injuries are probably more than recruitment costs).
Moscow times did a good estimate. Around 5T rubles in 2026, of which recruitment bonuses are around 1.5T
While losing 2,000 per Day in Combat…smart like Tractor!!!
The 160,000 spring draft is papering over something. CSIS noted they're moving toward year-round conscription, which tells you the volunteer pipeline is thinning faster than the headlines suggest.
I worry about the attrition mathematics here. Russia can probably keep this up for a long time but how long until Ukraine (with pressing man power issues) bucks under the weight of the endless bodies Russia throws at it?
Although with recruitment costs and overall expenditure spiralling out of control, it's practically a guarantee that this war won't expand into the rest of Eastern Eur/Baltics over time.
…barely enough for fertilizer
1ooo dropped