As Russian regions shoulder more war costs and social security funds are depleted, the consolidated budget balance has deteriorated far more than expected.
Superb sleuth work; excellent and original data analysis. The Federal Government is limiting the profile of its budget deficit by quietly passing it on to the regional budgets.
Hard data is rare on the IT side of the budget story, but one telling number: government IT procurement in 2024 was around 1 trillion roubles — more than half of total domestic IT demand. The "market" is now the state. Yandex restructured under a state-orchestrated consortium paid its first dividend at 5× net income. When a tech company starts behaving like a resource-extraction concern, the budget line that used to be marked "innovation" quietly moves to "rent."
Depends if you can borrow to cover it. Many western countries run deficits of this size but they have deep pools of domestic savings and can tap foreign investors. Russia doesn't really have either option at this point and is resorting to shell games with its banks to keep its finances afloat
Superb sleuth work; excellent and original data analysis. The Federal Government is limiting the profile of its budget deficit by quietly passing it on to the regional budgets.
Excellent piece. Presumably this year will put even more of a strain on Russia's public finances given the slump in oil and gas revenues
Very interesting piece.
Fascinating. A one trick pony that can’t be replicated in 2026.
Hard data is rare on the IT side of the budget story, but one telling number: government IT procurement in 2024 was around 1 trillion roubles — more than half of total domestic IT demand. The "market" is now the state. Yandex restructured under a state-orchestrated consortium paid its first dividend at 5× net income. When a tech company starts behaving like a resource-extraction concern, the budget line that used to be marked "innovation" quietly moves to "rent."
Meanwhile the U.S. federal deficit for 2025 was 6.1% according to U.S. government spending.com
Thanks, very important to monitor.
Even more reasons, for Europeans now to really double down on Russian oil and gar income.
Why don’t we stop Russian Shadow Fleet tankers in the baltic and the mediterranean?
This would be the most effective way to further drain Russian war economy.
Unfortunately still better than the USA deficit
Meanwhile, murderer, Putin is one of the wealthiest men in the world stashing cash everywhere !
Is 4% consolidated budget deficit that big?
Depends if you can borrow to cover it. Many western countries run deficits of this size but they have deep pools of domestic savings and can tap foreign investors. Russia doesn't really have either option at this point and is resorting to shell games with its banks to keep its finances afloat