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Piotr Szafranski's avatar

Fascinating data. Many questions arise. One can legitimately assume (those "prospective recruits" official suggestions) that up to now Russian forces at the front were in a large part consisting of people from society margins and/or the ones less well managing their lives.

This might explain both their lack of effectiveness, and that they can be subdued by their command using the most brutal methods.

Now, a question. Once the mobilized (across the society, not only a bottom sludge) people fill the frontline units, what will happen? They will form a much more effective force. But, will they accept the current mode of operation of the Russian army, "culture" of command, the tactics used?

With the current Russian frontline soldiers there is apparently nothing else to do but to keep killing them. But the "mobilization batch" might be more willing to think, reason, and maybe try to surrender, instead of getting blown up for no sane purpose?

Behind The Curtain's avatar

The municipal angle is the right one. Everyone watches the Defense Ministry, but the real pressure happens when a mayor in Perm or Ufa gets a phone call with a quota. The 43 regions DFRLab tracked in March 2023 did not panic uniformly. Some places emptied out, others developed quiet systems to buy time. The variation matters more than the hierarchy.

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