New budget data: Russia recruited ~1700 soldiers per day in late 2024
Newly released budget data indicates that 158,000 men enlisted in the fourth quarter of 2024. In total, Russia's military paid sign-on bonuses to approximately 400,000 soldiers last year.
Russia’s Ministry of Finance just published new data on budget spending for the full year of 2024. As always, one of the most interesting data points is the amount spent on recruitment bonuses. Russia spent a total of 110 billion rubles on army contract bonuses, plus an additional 1.6 billion rubles on National Guard contracts. The respective figures for the fourth quarter were 62 billion and 0.5 billion.
The significant rise in spending on sign-on bonuses is due to two factors: higher bonuses and an increased recruitment rate. Russia increased the sign-on bonus for army contracts from 195,000 to 400,000 rubles in August 2024. Bonus payments for contracts with the National Guard were increased as well in late November, but that most likely didn’t affect spending much in 2024 (the National Guard also has a comparably small number of new contracts).
It was difficult to estimate the number of recruits for the third quarter because of the bonus increase mid-quarter. In November, I created three different scenarios for Q3, based on different assumptions about the timing of the higher bonus's effect on budget spending. This resulted in estimates ranging from 49,500 to 82,788 contracts.
The picture is a lot clearer for the fourth quarter of 2024. Assuming all army bonus payouts were 400,000 rubles by October 2024, Russia added 155,734 army contracts. With an additional 2,497 National Guard contracts, the total for the fourth quarter is 158,231, or 1,720 per day. The true figure may be slightly lower and the true figure for Q3 may be slightly higher because of budget spending patterns. Fourth-quarter spending includes bonuses for contracts signed at the end of the third quarter. The recruitment campaign gained momentum at that time, after regional and federal bonus sizes had increased dramatically.
Depending on which scenario for the third quarter is used - minimum, middle, or maximum, — the total number of men recruited in 2024 was between 374,000 and 407,000 (the chart shows the maximum scenario). This figure is not far off from official Russian statements regarding recruitment success. In mid-December 2024, Defense Minister Belousov stated that 427,000 contracts had been signed in that year. Medvedev’s January 2025 claim of 450,000 new defense ministry contracts in 2024 is also within ~10% of the maximum estimate based on federal budget spending. In July 2024, the comparison looked similar: Medvedev had stated that 190,000 contracts were signed in the first half of 2024, while the federal budget data suggested 166,000.
The high level of recruitment in late 2024 confirms trends that regional budget data analysis revealed several months ago. Since fewer than half of Russia’s regions publish data on recruitment bonuses, I extrapolated available data based on population size, which yielded close to 1,400 contracts per day for the fourth quarter of 2024 (see the first chart in this post). Regional recruitment data suggested that approximately 900 contracts were signed per day in Q3, which is a slightly higher rate than the estimates based on federal data, indicating a more gradual acceleration of recruitment in the second half of the year.
Speaking of regional recruitment: I’m happy to announce that I had the opportunity to collaborate with the excellent iStories team on an analysis of regional spending data that will be published soon. Next week, this blog will also feature a more comprehensive update on the latest recruitment trends and Russian military spending in 2024.
This is a huge number of recruits to assimilate and train. I suspect it’s quantity over quality. It’s likely way in excess of Ukrainian efforts and significant in terms of the balance of power. Ukraine suggests in just over 3 years they have killed or wounded just short of a million Russian soldiers. Russia can replace half a million in just one year. This despite
Fascinating analysis, especially the clarity brought to Q4 recruitment through budget-based estimates. The correlation between rising bonus payments and accelerated recruitment momentum is striking—particularly the shift from ~900 to over 1,700 contracts per day in just one quarter.