Russian recruitment: The first half of 2025

Recruitment has slowed down from the ~40,000 per month seen in March and April to slightly below 30,000 in May and June. Russia has spent at least $4 billion on sign-on bonuses so far this year.

Dmitry Medvedev recently reported that Russian army recruited 210,000 contract soldiers in the first half of 2025. Compared to last year, when he claimed that 190,000 men had signed a contract with the army in January-June, this is a 10% increase. Medvedev’s figures are usually slightly above estimates based on regional and federal spending on bonus payments, and H1/2025 seems to be no exception. Regional budget data suggests that 191,000 contracts were signed in the last six months. Here is an overview of the last 1.5 years (federal data for Q2 has not been published yet):

Calculations are based on data from Russia’s Finance Ministry and media reports on Medvedev’s statements.

Quarterly data shows that estimates based on regional and federal budget spending closely align on a quarterly basis. This is remarkable because the regional data is generated from a different, independent data source and based on only 37 regions, which account for 43% of Russia’s population, and is then extrapolated for the rest of the country.

Calculations are based on data from Russia’s Finance Ministry.

The advantage of using regional data is that it is published frequently and without delay. This makes it possible to estimate regional recruitment on a monthly basis.

Calculations are based on data from Russia’s Finance Ministry.

Recruitment was particularly strong in the spring this year, surpassing 40,000 men per month in March alone.¹ When comparing this year’s recruitment rates to last year’s, it’s important to consider the increase in bonus payments. In some regions, these payments now amount to several million rubles and were negligible a year ago. Several regions have raised their payouts again in recent weeks after sign-on bonuses reached a plateau in spring 2025 (Tula, Novosibirsk, Moscow Oblast…).

Only a relatively small portion of bonus payments comes from the federal budget. If around 200,000 men signed a contract in the first half of 2025, the cost for federal sign-on bonuses would be 80 billion rubles ($1 billion). At the same time, regions have spent an estimated 230 billion rubles² ($2.9 billion) for sign-on bonuses in the first half of the year. Including municipal and company bonuses would certainly raise the total to over $4 billion. Because recruitment and spending tend to increase toward the end of the year, total spending on recruitment bonuses will likely exceed $10 billion in 2025.

In most regions, sign-on bonuses amounted to 2-3% of total budget spending in the first half of 2025. However, there were also outliers. Mari El, a small, impoverished ethnic republic in the Volga Federal District, is probably the most shocking case. Mari El is among the top payers nationwide, offering a sign-on bonus of 2.6 million rubles ($32,500) for each new contract. Mari El attracted around 1,300 men in the first half of 2025. Consequently, sign-on bonuses accounted for over 10% of the region’s budget, surpassing its total spending on healthcare.

1. The methodology for calculating regional recruitment has been simplified: Now, the number of recruits is determined by dividing the regional spending on a given day by the regional bonus valid on that day. Previously, a 28-day moving average of spending was used, and bonus changes were phased in gradually. At the national level, the results don’t differ much.

2. The 37 regions in the regional dataset spent 100 billion rubles in the first half of 2025 and represent 43% of the Russian population. The sample includes some high-paying regions (Moscow Oblast, Bashkortostan), but also leaves out some of the biggest spenders (e.g. Moscow, St. Petersburg).